RPS Graduation Rates: Official Fiction

By John R. Butcher

February 5, 2019 by cranky

The estimable Carol Wolf sent me the link to an article reporting improving graduation rates of disabled students and asked whether those rates were reflected in Virginia or Richmond.

We earlier saw that Virginia’s graduation rate has been increasing while the reading and math End of Course pass rates were falling.  That is, the Board of “Education” has its thumb on the statistical scale.  Per Carol’s’ inquiry, let’s take a closer look at the overall rates and delve into the rates for disabled students.

The current requirements for a “standard” diploma include six “verified” credits, two in English plus one each in math, a laboratory science, history & social science, and a student-selected subject.  To earn a verified credit, the student must both pass the course and pass the End of Course (“EOC”) SOL test “or a substitute assessment approved by the Board of Education.”

[Do you see the thumb there on the scale?]

To start, here are the reading EOC pass rates for the past five years.

Hmmm.  How might we explain those Richmond disabled numbers for 2014-16?  Friar Occam might suggest cheating.  In any case, this is not a picture of improving performance.

Then we have writing.

History & Social Science.

Math.

And science.

There are some bumps and squiggles there but the trends are clear: The state averages are fading and the Richmond, plunging.  

The five subject average smooths out the variations.

That’s clear enough: The statewide averages have declined in the last two years; despite some gains in ‘15 and ‘16, those averages have declined overall since 2014.  The Richmond averages have plummeted.

Turning to diplomas: Our educrats report (and brag upon) an “on-time” graduation rate.  To get that rate they define “graduates” to include students who earn receive any of the following diplomas: Advanced Studies, Standard, Modified Standard, Special, and General Achievement.  

To their credit, the federales do not count the substandard diplomas: The federal rate includes only advanced and standard diplomas.  To combat that bit of realism, Virginia two years ago redefined the Modified Standard Diploma by allowing “credit accommodations” to transform it, in most cases, into a Standard Diploma. 

This had a nice effect statewide and a dramatic effect in Richmond.

With that background, let’s look at the four-year cohort graduation rates.

Those increases are enough to warm an educrat’s heart, at least until we notice that:

• The pass rates don’t support the recent increases, and
• That 2017 bump in the disabled rate (that boosts the overall rate is some measure) reflects 1,200 or more modified standard diplomas that were transformed into standard diplomas by fiat.

The redefinition give Richmond a nice bump in 2017 but the overall rate resumed its decline in 2018.

So, yes, Carol.  The Virginia four-year cohort graduation rates rose, both for disabled students and for all students.  The rise was enhanced after 2016 by (even further) manipulated data.  The rise continued at a time the pass rates in the End of Course SOL tests were declining.  If you believe those improving numbers, I want to sell you some shares in a nice James River bridge.

Richmond’s declining numbers remind us that even bogus statistics can’t make Richmond’s public schools look like anything but a menace to the students.

Your tax dollars at “work.”

Postscript: It looks like inflated graduation rates are a national phenomenon.

Categories Uncategorized

Boosting the Graduation Rate

February 3, 2019 by cranky

As VDOE bragged, their (bogus) “On-Time” graduation rate rose this year.  They didn’t brag about the Richmond rate; it dropped.

Turns out, the (somewhat less bogus) “federal” rates show the same pattern.

Note: Post updated from October, 2018 to correct the 2017 state rate.

The increase in the state rate was driven by an increase in the standard diploma rate.  The drop in the Richmond rate came from a 2.7% decrease in the advanced studies rate.

But you, Astute Reader, are still looking at that first graph and asking: “John!  You’ve been ranting about how VDOE’s manipulation improved the state rate by about 1.3 points for ‘17 and ‘18 and the Richmond rate by perhaps five points.  Where are those increases?”

Ah, what a pleasure to have an attentive reader!  The 1.3 and 5 point boosts look to have been offset or partially offset by decreases in the End of Course pass rates.  

Turning to the data, here are the graduation rates again along with the averages of the five EOC subject area pass rates.

Students must pass six EOC tests to graduate.  Thus, the decreases of the pass rates of those required courses must have lowered the graduation rates.  Then the VDOE data manipulation offset those graduation rate declines in some measure.  

That looks like a general explanation.  The specific would require a more detailed knowledge of which students passed or failed which courses, and where in their four-year journey through high school, and whether they graduated.  For sure, the drop in the Richmond pass rates is consistent with the absence of the five-point boost there.

Of course, correlation is not causation and doubtless there are other factors in the mix here.  The floor is open for any more convincing suggestion.

BTW: The Big Drops in Richmond, and the lesser in state, EOC pass rates mostly came in math and science.

Preview of Coming Attraction: The Board of “Education” has its next Finagle factor in place: Under the new accreditation regulation (subsection B.3), we now have “locally verified credits” for students who flunk the required SOL tests.  This should insure another nice increase in the state graduation rate, paid for by another not-so-nice decrease in student learning.